8-26-2010
As the media portrays it, real estate is really depressing if you happen to be a builder, a realtor or a subcontractor. This morning I was at a T.A.R.R. meeting at the RBC Center at which Stacey Anfindsen spoke about the recent trends in real estate sales. He is an appraiser but more importantly the man responsible for taking all the mls data and melting it down into one digestible report. I say digestible but frankly it doesn’t go down easily.
There is good news and there is bad news. What can I say, I’m an optimist and there has to be a yen and yang. Bad news first: We are at or near the bottom. Good news: We are at at or near the bottom. Let me explain. Our decline started in 2007 and with the recent boost of the $8000 tax credit we had a mini-surge for the 2nd quarter of this year. I believe we will see a decline over the next few months. Turn on the TV yesterday or this morning and I’m sure you heard that sales went down 27%. Yikes! http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2010/08/ehs_fall
But you also have to understand that it has taken us nearly two and a half years to get to this point. Now you add in the information provided by Ed Dunnavant from MetroStudy and you see a pattern emerge. It doesn’t matter if you plot sales, inventory, or number of current available vacant new construction. What becomes evident is the supply and demand matrix and it’s getting more favorable.
Prices are driven by supply and demand, Economics 101 right? Well in order for us to move forward into a better economic state as far as real estate is concerned, we need to lower the supply and increase the demand. The supply of new construction homes has decreased. Prices have dropped but in certain markets in our area, prices have started to stabilize and actually increase a bit. So, where are all the buyers?
I would think that with mortgage rates in the 4%’s on a 30 year fixed loan, buyers would be ready to go. Not so fast. Refinancing made up almost 78% of all new mortgages this last quarter. People who have the credit and have the income (translation job) are refinancing. What they are doing with any additional cash they are getting at closing is reducing their debt rather than spending it on stuff or travel. Here’s the crux of the matter: consumer confidence is way down.
Mr. Dunnavant showed us a graph that depicted what people thought about their current situation versus the future. The graph displayed that people believed in early 2009 that the economy would improve in about six months. Those six months came and went, but peoples’ confidence did not rise like they predicted. They again believed that recovery was off in the future. Who wouldn’t feel that way when every news program you turn on is dumping on the economy? Start talking and feeling and believing that things are terrible, and guess what; you get what you focus on. We need to change that focus.
Consumers are hopeful, but not to the point that they feel confident enough to purchase a home. This has to change. People need somewhere to live, whether that is a parent’s house, an apartment, a rental house, with a friend or their own homes. We all need a roof over our heads; it’s one of life’s basic necessities. Now don’t get me wrong, homes are still being sold, we aren’t dead in the water completely, but these are the “must haves” group; the ones who have a change in their familial status or get a raise or promotion. I believe that it’s this lack of confidence and the belief that prices will still drop, and interest rates will get lower that is keeping people from buying. If you want to buy a house, buy a house. I truly believe that as homes are slowly sold, prices will stabilize, sales will increase and builders will start to build again, boosting our economy. It won't happen soon, but it will happen.
After digesting the graphs and information presented today at the Real Estate Trends Forum, I believe we are moving back up slowly, steadily and surely. I certainly am focusing my attention on the glass half full. Please do yourself a favor and stay away from the doom and gloom. Buying a home is a personal decision, it’s yours to make not someone elses. We all need a place to live, right? So save some money and take advantage of the low prices and great mortgage rates.
Thanks for listening. Cara
Blog